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Are There Only Three Ways of Assessing Military Power?
In 2004, military analyst and academic Stephen Biddle published Military Power: Explaining Victory and Defeat in Modern Battle, a book that addressed the fundamental question of what causes victory and...
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Tank Loss Rates in Combat: Then and Now
As the U.S. Army and the national security community seek a sense of what potential conflicts in the near future might be like, they see the distinct potential for large tank battles. Will...
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Predictions
We do like to claim we have predicted the casualty rates correctly in three wars (operations): 1) The 1991 Gulf War, 2) the 1995 Bosnia intervention, and 3) the Iraq insurgency. Furthermore, these...
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Insurgencies, Civil Conflicts, And Messy Endings
[© Reuters/Navesh Chitrakar] The question of how insurgencies end is crucially important. There is no consensus on how to effectively wage counterinsurgency much less end one on favorable terms. Even...
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Insurgency In The DPRK?
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, July 27, 2014. [KCNA/REUTERS] As tensions have ratcheted up on the Korean peninsula following a new round of...
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Attrition In Future Land Combat
Soldiers with Battery C, 1st Battalion, 82nd Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division maneuver their Paladins through Hohenfels Training Area, Oct. 26. Photo Credit:...
View ArticleOsipov
Back in 1915, a Russian named M. Osipov published a paper in a Tsarist military journal that was Lanchester like: http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a241534.pdf He actually tested his equations to...
View ArticleAussie OR
Over the years I have run across a number of Australian Operations Research and Historical Analysis efforts. Overall, I have been impressed with what I have seen. Below is one of their papers written...
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Validating Trevor Dupuy’s Combat Models
[The article below is reprinted from Winter 2010 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] A Summation of QJM/TNDM Validation Efforts By Christopher A. Lawrence There have been six or seven...
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TDI Friday Read: The Validity Of The 3-1 Rule Of Combat
Canadian soldiers going “over the top” during the First World War. [History.com] Today’s edition of TDI Friday Read addresses the question of force ratios in combat. How many troops are needed to...
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Attrition In Future Land Combat
Soldiers with Battery C, 1st Battalion, 82nd Field Artillery Regiment, 1st Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division maneuver their Paladins through Hohenfels Training Area, Oct. 26. Photo Credit:...
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Comparing the RAND Version of the 3:1 Rule to Real-World Data
Chuliengcheng. In a glorious death eternal life. (Battle of Yalu River, 1904) [Wikimedia Commons] [The article below is reprinted from the Winter 2010 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.]...
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Perla On Dupuy
Dr. Peter Perla, noted defense researcher, wargame designer and expert, and author of the seminal The Art of Wargaming: A Guide for Professionals and Hobbyists, gave the keynote address at the 2017...
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‘Evett’s Rates’: British War Office Wastage Tables
Stretcher bearers of the East Surrey Regiment, with a Churchill tank of the North Irish Horse in the background, during the attack on Longstop Hill, Tunisia, 23 April 1943. [Imperial War...
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‘Love’s Tables’: U.S. War Department Casualty Estimation in World War II
The same friend of TDI who asked about ‘Evett’s Rates,” the British casualty estimation methodology during World War II, also mentioned that the work of Albert G. Love III was now available on-line....
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Assessing The Assessments Of The Military Balance In The China Seas
“If we maintain our faith in God, love of freedom, and superior global airpower, the future [of the US] looks good.” — U.S. Air Force General Curtis E. LeMay (Commander, U.S. Strategic Command,...
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Abstraction and Aggregation in Wargame Modeling
[IPMS/USA Reviews] “All models are wrong, some models are useful.” – George Box Models, no matter what their subjects, must always be an imperfect copy of the original. The term “model” inherently has...
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Scoring Weapons And Aggregation In Trevor Dupuy’s Combat Models
[The article below is reprinted from the October 1997 edition of The International TNDM Newsletter.] Consistent Scoring of Weapons and Aggregation of Forces: The Cornerstone of Dupuy’s Quantitative...
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The Third World War of 1985
[This article was originally posted on 5 August 2016] The seeming military resurgence of Vladimir Putin’s Russia has renewed concerns about the military balance between East and West in Europe. These...
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CEV Calculations in Italy, 1943
Tip of the Avalanche by Keith Rocco. Soldiers from the U.S. 36th Infantry Division landing at Salerno, Italy, September 1943. [The article below is reprinted from June 1997 edition of The International...
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